DATELINE GUJARAT / डेटलाइन गुजरात / ડેટલાઈન ગુજરાત: THE #DLG+2 DISPATCH | BUSINESS BUZZ | 24.04.2025

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THE #DLG+2 DISPATCH (GLOBAL EDITION)
as on 24th APRIL 2025 / THURSDAY
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A Big Hello and Greetings - Readers and Viewers,

Today is THURSDAY, 24th APRIL 2025, and here we go with our THE #DLG+2 DISPATCH / THE DATELINE GUJARAT DISPATCH, - THE BUSINESS BUZZ ... as i scan the global and national (Indian) business news landscape, what i read is that it is a A Whirlwind of Global and Indian Developments!

Namaste, Readers and Viewers,

Buckle up as we dive into a whirlwind of news that’s making waves across the globe and right here in India. From cyber hiccups to corporate battles, economic forecasts to health alerts, let’s unpack the stories shaping our world today, in true Indian English style.

Cyber Woes and Corporate Drama

Starting with a bit of a shocker from the UK, Marks & Spencer’s contactless payments and click-and-collect services have been hit by a cyber incident. Imagine heading to M&S for your weekly shop, only to find your card tap isn’t working—proper headache, no? This just shows how even big brands aren’t immune to digital gremlins. Meanwhile, across town, THG has given a firm “no thanks” to a £600 million bid for its Myprotein brand by former chairman Iain McDonald. Labelled “wholly unsolicited” and “highly conditional,” it’s clear THG isn’t ready to let go of its fitness cash cow. Corporate chess moves like these keep markets on their toes.

Trump’s Tiffs and Tesla’s Tumbles

Over in the US, President-elect Donald Trump is stirring the pot with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump’s beef? He reckons Powell’s policies are too tight, choking economic growth. Some say it’s a power play; others call it Trump wanting a Fed that dances to his tune. If Powell exits, ING predicts the EUR/USD could rocket to 1.20—a big deal for currency traders. Speaking of big names, Tesla’s Elon Musk is making headlines too. Tesla shares surged after Musk vowed to step back from his White House advisory role with DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). But analysts warn the DOGE stint has left “brand damage” on Tesla, with shares still popular among AJ Bell customers despite disappointing earnings. Moral of the story? Even Musk’s star power can’t dodge market jitters.

EU’s Tech Crackdown and UK’s Property Buzz

The European Commission isn’t playing nice with Big Tech, slapping Apple and Meta with a combined €700 million fine for breaching the Digital Markets Act (DMA). Apple’s getting heat for restricting app developers, while Meta’s “pay-or-consent” model has drawn flak. Meta’s accuses EU of hitting, calling the fines a “tariff” in disguise. Across the Channel, UK estate agent Foxtons is riding high, with house sales nearing a 10-year peak, thanks to stamp duty tweaks. But with inheritance tax receipts jumping 10%, Britons are scrambling to cut IHT liabilities. Gifting assets or trusts, anyone?

Indian Markets and Global Metals

Back home, the Sensex is back in the big leagues, reclaiming 80,000 on a global rally. Investors are buzzing as LTIMindtree, Bajaj Housing, Tata Consumer, and Dalmia Bharat gear up to drop their Q4 results. Will they deliver or disappoint? Stay tuned. On the global front, Canadian aluminium diversions are splitting opinions on European premiums—some see prices spiking, others say it’s a non-issue. And in a blow to jobs, Intel’s plan to cut 20% of its workforce has sparked fears for 5,000 Irish jobs. Tough times for the tech sector.

Nuclear Ambitions and Railway Rumbles

The UK’s Great British Nuclear is launching a $801.7 million tender for a reactor project, aiming to boost clean energy. Closer to home, Heidi Alexander faced MPs’ grilling over South Western Railways’ blunders—delays and cancellations aren’t winning any fans. Meanwhile, China’s AVIC AG600 firefighting plane got a nod from CAAC, a win for aviation safety.

Money Matters: Taxes, Tariffs, and Gold

For Indian taxpayers, ChatGPT’s tax-saving tips are surprisingly practical—think ELSS funds, PPF, or NPS for deductions. But after IMF, now it is the World Bank’s lowered FY26 growth forecast to 6.3% for India has raised eyebrows(!). Is India’s growth story slowing? On the wealth front, gold rates surged past ₹1 lakh, while UAE gold prices dipped on April 23—good news for bling lovers. Property buyers, take note: new registry rules kick in from April 30, so double-check your paperwork.

Health, Wealth, and Wisdom

Health-wise, science is digging into food additives—some are safe, others questionable. And a list of 10 cancer signs is doing the rounds, reminding us to stay vigilant. On the wealth front, whisky investment frauds are being flagged as “serious organised crime.” Stick to sipping, not investing, folks. For savers, the Isa vs pension debate continues—pensions for long-term security, Isas for flexibility. Choose wisely.

Pound’s Party and Trump’s Tariff Vision

The British Pound is set to soar, with markets singing “bye, bye Miss American Pie.” Trump’s tariff-heavy vision for the US economy is driving this optimism, but it’s a double-edged sword—tariffs could spark trade wars. British Steel dodged mass redundancies thanks to government intervention, but the industry’s still on shaky ground. Swiss Re reports slower growth in group risk policies for 2024, a sign of cautious times.

World Book Day and a Reflective Note

Finally, happy World Book Day! Grab a book, lose yourself in a story, and celebrate the joy of reading. As we navigate these turbulent times—cyber threats, corporate battles, economic shifts, and health alerts—let’s stay informed and grounded. India’s markets are roaring, but global uncertainties linger. Keep your eyes peeled and your wits sharp.

What do you think, readers? Are Tesla’s woes overblown, or is Musk’s DOGE drama a real risk? And how’s the Sensex rally treating your portfolio? Drop your thoughts below!

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THE BUSINESS BUZZ

As i scan the online and offline space in Business Media space of the nation, it seems headlines are dominated with the updates from Global Markets, Indian Bourses, Key and Sectoral, Brokerage views, Corporate Announcements and Stock Specific views and allied price movements, LIVE MARKET UPDATES etc. which can very well be read in the INDIA BUSINESS NEWSWIRES and WORLD BUSINESS NEWSWIRES, as well.

Below is a commentary on the trending business news from the last 24 hours, synthesizing key developments with insights into their implications, based on recent reports:

US Stock Market Rebound and Tariff Optimism, Wall Street closed higher, with the Dow and Nasdaq both up 2.7%, fueled by strong corporate earnings and hopes of de-escalating US-China trade tensions. President Trump’s decision to back down from threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell further boosted global markets. The market’s rally reflects fragile optimism that tariff wars might ease, a critical factor given the global economy’s sensitivity to US-China relations. Trump’s pivot on Powell signals a rare moment of restraint, likely calming investors wary of policy volatility. However, this uptick could be short-lived if tariff rhetoric resurfaces or earnings momentum falters. The market’s quick reaction to political cues underscores its current dependence on sentiment over fundamentals.
ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent are amassing billions in Nvidia chips, anticipating potential US export curbs. This follows reports of China considering a ban on Nvidia GPUs due to AI data center overcapacity. China’s chip stockpiling is a strategic move to secure AI dominance amid escalating tech decoupling. It highlights the precarious balance in global supply chains, where geopolitical tensions could disrupt innovation. If the US tightens restrictions, it risks accelerating China’s push for self-reliance in semiconductors, potentially reshaping the tech landscape. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s centrality in this saga underscores its outsized influence—and vulnerability—in the AI race.
A covert ‘China Track’ bank netting system is reportedly shielding Russia-China trade from Western scrutiny, enabling discreet financial flows. This system is a bold workaround to Western sanctions, signaling a deepening Sino-Russian economic alliance. It challenges the US-led financial order, raising questions about the enforceability of sanctions in a fragmenting global economy. While it strengthens bilateral trade, it could invite stricter countermeasures from the West, escalating economic warfare. The opacity of such systems also risks fostering illicit finance, complicating global regulatory efforts.
EU exports to the US jumped 22.4% in February, but tariff fears are dimming European banks’ 2025 earnings outlook. Global stocks partially recovered from tariff-induced losses. The EU’s export surge reflects a rush to front-load trade before potential US tariffs bite, but the looming threat is already souring banking sector confidence. European markets are caught in a bind: short-term gains from trade are overshadowed by long-term risks of protectionism. If tariffs materialize, they could choke transatlantic commerce and strain EU economic stability, especially for export-heavy nations like Germany.
Volkswagen Group is betting on new models and in-house assisted driving tech to revive its China market share. Meanwhile, GM’s Mary Barra faces hurdles making a $35 billion EV investment viable in a tariff-heavy US environment. VW’s pivot to localized tech in China is a pragmatic response to fierce domestic competition and declining foreign brand appeal. Success hinges on execution in a cutthroat market. In the US, GM’s EV gamble is a high-stakes test of Barra’s vision against a backdrop of policy uncertainty. Tariffs could inflate costs, forcing GM to rethink pricing or scale back ambitions, while consumer adoption remains a wildcard.
The World Economic Forum is investigating founder Klaus Schwab over whistleblower allegations, raising governance concerns. The probe into Schwab could dent the WEF’s credibility as a global thought leader, especially if allegations of mismanagement stick. At a time when trust in institutions is shaky, this scandal risks amplifying skepticism about elite-driven agendas. The outcome will test the WEF’s ability to practice the transparency it preaches, with potential ripple effects on its influence.
ConocoPhillips announced layoffs as part of a restructuring effort, reflecting cost-cutting in the energy sector. The layoffs signal a broader retrenchment in oil and gas, likely driven by volatile prices and investor pressure for leaner operations. While restructuring may bolster short-term margins, it risks long-term talent drain and operational capacity if demand rebounds. The move also highlights the sector’s struggle to balance profitability with energy transition pressures.

Critical Perspective: These stories reveal a global economy at a crossroads, grappling with trade wars, technological decoupling, and institutional trust deficits. The establishment narrative—optimistic market rebounds, strategic corporate pivots—often glosses over deeper risks: protectionism could stifle growth, tech rivalries may fragment innovation, and governance scandals erode public faith. The interplay of US policy shifts and global countermeasures suggests a world bracing for turbulence, where short-term gains mask structural fragility.

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Meanwhile enjoy the Bloomberg Business News Live (IN ENGLISH LANGUAGE) (Courtesy : Bloomberg Television) which talks on business news updates from across the World, Continents, Nation and Key Cities of the World with headquarters at New York in US.

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THE ECONOMIC EVENTS CALENDAR

So, let us see as to how the set of economic events across the world are setting the stage for the business, economic news developments ...

Below is a detailed Economic Events Calendar for Thursday, April 24, 2025, covering key economic events and indicators from the specified regions, converted to Indian Standard Time (IST).

The calendar includes events that may impact financial markets, such as economic data releases, central bank announcements, and other significant indicators.

Note that the exact times and events are based on available data from reliable sources like Investing.com, TradingEconomics.com, FXStreet, and others, with times adjusted to IST (UTC+5:30).

If specific events are not listed for a region, it indicates no major scheduled releases for that date based on available information. All times are in IST, and the calendar is organized by region for clarity.

South Pacific (Australia, New Zealand)

Australia
- No major economic events scheduled for April 24, 2025, based on available data. Typically, Australian economic indicators like PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), retail sales, or trade balance are released monthly, but no specific releases are noted for this date.
- Note: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcements or commodity-related data (e.g., exports to China) could occur, but none are confirmed for this date.
New Zealand
- No major economic events scheduled. Key indicators like CPI (Consumer Price Index), trade balance, or Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) statements are not listed for April 24, 2025.

Asia

Japan
- Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 06:00 IST
  - Description: Measures manufacturing activity in Japan. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. Recent data suggests Japan’s manufacturing has been contracting for ten consecutive months due to declining orders amid U.S. tariff concerns.
  - Impact: High. Affects JPY (Japanese Yen) and Asian equity markets.
  - Previous: 49.2 (March 2025, expected to remain below 50).
- Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 06:00 IST
  - Description: Tracks service sector activity. A key indicator for Japan’s economy, which relies heavily on services.
  - Impact: Moderate. Influences JPY and investor sentiment in Asia.
China
- No major economic events scheduled. China’s key indicators like GDP, industrial production, or PMI are typically released earlier or later in the month. Recent reports highlight concerns over U.S. tariffs impacting Chinese exports.
India
- No major economic events scheduled. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) typically focuses on indicators like CPI, repo rate decisions, or trade data, but no releases are confirmed for April 24, 2025.
Singapore
- No major economic events scheduled. Singapore’s economic data, such as GDP or trade figures, are not listed for this date.

Eurasia

Russia
- No major economic events scheduled. Key indicators like GDP, inflation, or Central Bank of Russia rate decisions are not listed for April 24, 2025. Recent focus has been on energy exports and geopolitical tensions.
Turkey
- No major economic events scheduled. Turkey’s central bank announcements or inflation data are significant but not scheduled for this date.

Middle East

United Arab Emirates
- No major economic events scheduled. The UAE’s economic indicators, such as PMI or oil-related data, are not listed for April 24, 2025.
Saudi Arabia
- No major economic events scheduled. Oil production announcements or OPEC-related updates could occur, but none are confirmed for this date.

Africa

South Africa
- No major economic events scheduled. South Africa’s key indicators, such as unemployment rate, CPI, or South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decisions, are not listed for April 24, 2025.
Nigeria
- No major economic events scheduled. Nigeria’s economic data, like inflation or oil production, are not scheduled for this date.

Europe

Germany
- HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 14:00 IST
  - Description: Measures manufacturing activity in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. A reading above 50 signals expansion. Recent data suggests ongoing contraction due to global trade uncertainties.
  - Impact: High. Affects EUR (Euro) and European stock markets.
  - Previous: 41.9 (March 2025, expected to remain weak).
- HCOB Germany Services PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 14:00 IST
  - Description: Tracks service sector activity, a significant part of Germany’s economy.
  - Impact: Moderate. Influences EUR and investor confidence in Europe.
Eurozone
- HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 14:30 IST
  - Description: Aggregates manufacturing activity across Eurozone countries. A key indicator for the region’s economic health.
  - Impact: High. Impacts EUR and European financial markets.
  - Previous: 46.1 (March 2025, expected to show slight improvement).
- HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 14:30 IST
  - Description: Measures service sector activity across the Eurozone.
  - Impact: Moderate to High. Affects EUR and market sentiment.
France
- HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 13:30 IST
  - Description: Tracks manufacturing activity in France.
  - Impact: Moderate. Influences EUR and French equity markets.
- HCOB France Services PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 13:30 IST
  - Description: Measures service sector performance.
  - Impact: Moderate.
United Kingdom
- S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 15:00 IST
  - Description: Measures UK manufacturing activity. Recent data reflects concerns over U.S. tariffs impacting UK growth forecasts.
  - Impact: High. Affects GBP (British Pound) and UK stock markets.
  - Previous: 50.3 (March 2025, expected to remain near neutral).
- S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 15:00 IST
  - Description: Tracks service sector activity, a dominant part of the UK economy.
  - Impact: High. Influences GBP and investor sentiment.

Latin America

Brazil
- No major economic events scheduled. Brazil’s key indicators, such as GDP, BCB interest rate decisions, or inflation, are not listed for April 24, 2025.
Mexico
- No major economic events scheduled. Mexico’s economic data, like GDP or Banxico rate decisions, are not scheduled for this date. Recent focus has been on USMCA trade dynamics.
Argentina
- No major economic events scheduled. Inflation and trade balance data are critical for Argentina but not listed for this date.

Caribbean

No major economic events scheduled. Caribbean economies (e.g., Jamaica, Barbados) typically have limited data releases, with tourism and trade being key focus areas. No specific events are noted for April 24, 2025.

North America (Mexico, US, Canada)

United States
- Durable Goods Orders (March)
  - Time: 18:00 IST
  - Description: Measures new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, indicating business investment.
  - Impact: High. Affects USD (U.S. Dollar) and equity markets.
  - Previous: 1.4% MoM (February 2025, expected to moderate).
- Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending April 19)
  - Time: 18:00 IST
  - Description: Tracks new unemployment claims, a leading indicator of labor market health. Current U.S. unemployment rate is 4.2% (as of April 4, 2025).
  - Impact: High. Influences USD and market sentiment.
  - Previous: 212K (prior week, expected to remain stable).
- New Home Sales (March)
  - Time: 19:30 IST
  - Description: Measures sales of newly constructed homes, reflecting housing market strength.
  - Impact: Moderate. Affects USD and construction-related stocks.
  - Previous: 662K units (February 2025, expected to show growth).
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 19:15 IST
  - Description: Tracks manufacturing activity in the U.S.
  - Impact: High. Affects USD and equity markets.
  - Previous: 51.9 (March 2025, expected to remain above 50).
- S&P Global US Services PMI (Preliminary)
  - Time: 19:15 IST
  - Description: Measures service sector activity, a major component of the U.S. economy.
  - Impact: High. Influences USD and investor confidence.
Canada
- No major economic events scheduled. Canada’s key indicators, such as Bank of Canada rate decisions, CPI, or employment data, are not listed for April 24, 2025.
Mexico
- No major economic events scheduled (as noted in Latin America section).

Notes and Methodology

Time Zone Conversion: All times are converted to IST (UTC+5:30) using standard time zone differences. For example, U.S. Eastern Time (EDT, UTC-4) is 9.5 hours behind IST, and Japan (JST, UTC+9) is 3.5 hours ahead.
Event Selection: Events are sourced from economic calendars like Investing.com, FXStreet, TradingEconomics, and Nasdaq, focusing on high- and moderate-impact releases that affect forex, equity, and commodity markets.
Data Gaps: Some regions (e.g., Caribbean, Africa, Middle East) have no scheduled events due to limited data releases or less frequent reporting. Unscheduled events (e.g., central bank speeches, geopolitical developments) may still impact markets.
Impact Levels:
- High: Significant market mover (e.g., PMI, jobless claims, durable goods).
- Moderate: Notable but less immediate impact (e.g., services PMI, new home sales).
Critical Examination: While sources provide consensus forecasts, actual outcomes may differ due to global uncertainties like U.S. tariffs, trade tensions, or monetary policy shifts. For instance, recent reports highlight tariff impacts on Japan, the UK, and China, which could amplify market reactions.

Additional Information

Global Context: The IMF’s World Economic Outlook projects global growth at 3.3% for 2025, with risks from inflation, trade tensions, and monetary policy normalization. This backdrop may influence market reactions to April 24 events.
Unscheduled Events: Central bank speeches, corporate earnings (e.g., Tesla, Palantir), or geopolitical developments could occur on April 24, 2025, but are not listed in economic calendars.
Sources: Events are compiled from Investing.com, TradingEconomics.com, FXStreet, and Nasdaq, with times verified against IST.

If you need further details on specific events, regions, or market impacts, please let me know!

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THE GLOBAL WRAP-UP

So, how are the sectoral news developments across the world and news-geographies shaping the global business news landscape ...

While we focus on the sector specific business news across the world, it is a mix of range of mix of agriculture, manufacturing and service specific sectoral data ...

Here’s a concise overview of sector-specific business news from the last 24 hours, based on available information:

Technology:

In China, a humanoid robot marathon in Beijing highlighted the country’s push to lead in AI, robotics, and chip development. This event underscores China's ambition to dominate advanced tech sectors.
India’s electronics manufacturing has grown fivefold in the past decade, reaching ₹11 lakh crore, with new developments like VVDN Technologies’ Surface Mount Technology Line in Manesar boosting the sector.

Energy:

Swiss solar panel manufacturer Meyer Burger reduced workers’ hours at its German site, signaling challenges in the solar industry.
BP’s share buyback program faces risks due to falling oil prices, according to analysts.
Woodside is assessing the impact of potential Trump tariffs on its $1.2 billion Louisiana LNG project.
Baker Hughes flagged tariff-related impacts on its full-year core profit, reflecting trade policy concerns in the energy sector.

Automotive:

General Motors’ CEO Mary Barra faces challenges in executing a $35 billion electric vehicle strategy amid uncertainties in Trump’s America, potentially affecting EV market growth.
Boeing’s shares rose after reporting a smaller-than-expected loss, despite ongoing US-China trade tensions impacting the aerospace sector.

Finance and Banking:

In India, major banks like SBI, BoB, and Axis Bank surpassed their 200-day moving averages, signaling potential strength in the banking sector.
Wall Street saw gains driven by optimism over potential tariff reductions, particularly after comments suggesting a softer stance on US-China trade policies.
Gold prices dropped 3% as market sentiment improved due to tariff optimism and Trump’s comments on Federal Reserve policies.

Telecommunications:

India’s telecom sector is seeing growth with Vi’s 5G rollout, expected to sustain momentum for six months as coverage expands to major cities.
Indian troops in remote areas like Siachen Glacier now have access to reliable 4G and 5G connectivity, boosting telecom infrastructure in challenging regions.

Economy and Trade:

India’s Index of Eight Core Industries grew 3.8% in March 2025, driven by cement, fertilizers, steel, electricity, coal, and refinery products, though crude oil and natural gas declined.
Goldman Sachs warned that India’s private sector capital expenditure may slow due to tariff uncertainties, with corporations potentially deferring new investments.
The White House is considering lowering China tariffs as part of trade talk preparations, which could impact global trade dynamics.

Space:

Tamil Nadu’s Space Policy is focusing on attracting investments, creating high-value jobs, and building a skilled workforce for space technologies and services.

Insurance:

Two lawsuits in California allege major home insurance companies are colluding to limit coverage in wildfire-prone areas, pushing homeowners toward the state’s last-resort insurance plan.

Electric Vehicles and Brand Impact:

Investors expressed relief that Elon Musk will refocus on Tesla, but concerns remain about potential brand damage, which could affect the electric vehicle sector’s perception.

This summary covers key sectors with notable developments.

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THE INDIA WRAP-UP

So, how are the sectoral news developments across the Nation (India) shaping the business news landscape of the nation ...

Below is a compilation of sector-specific business news headlines from India for the last 24 hours, based on available information from recent sources. The headlines are organized by sector, focusing on key developments reported on April 23–24, 2025.

Banking and Finance

SBI, BoB, Axis Bank Conquer 200-DMA: State Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, and Axis Bank have surpassed their 200-day moving averages, signaling potential bullish trends. Analysts are optimistic but cautious about future movements.
FII Flows Outlook for FY26: Pranav Haridasan of Axis Securities predicts FY26 could see constructive foreign institutional investor (FII) flows into Indian markets, despite global uncertainties.
Midcap Stocks to Watch: Five midcap stocks are projected to deliver up to 24% returns in the short term, as per market analysts, boosting investor interest in the financial sector.

Infrastructure and Economy

Core Industries Growth Slumps: India’s eight core industries, accounting for 40% of the industrial production index, recorded a four-year low growth of 4.4% in FY25, down from 7.6% in FY24, due to declines in crude oil and natural gas production.
Private Sector Capex Slowdown: Goldman Sachs warns that private sector capital expenditure may decelerate due to U.S. tariffs, with corporations likely deferring new investments.

Real Estate

AIF Investments Surge: The real estate sector attracted Rs 73,903 crore in alternate investment funds (AIFs) in the first nine months of FY25, dominating India’s investment landscape.

Aviation

Air India Refreshes Fleet: Air India received its first refreshed Boeing 777-300 ER aircraft, with plans to complete heavy refreshes on 12 more planes by year-end, addressing supply chain delays.
Aeronautical Charges Discussion: The Airports Economic Regulatory Authority (AERA) held a three-hour meeting with aviation stakeholders to discuss aeronautical charges, aiming to balance economic structures for India’s aviation hub ambitions.
Flight Delays Raise Concerns: Supriya Sule reported a 1-hour-19-minute delay on Air India flight AI0508, highlighting ongoing issues with flight punctuality.

Logistics and Ports

Adani Ports Growth Prospects: India’s Consul General in Shanghai met Adani Ports and SEZ Ltd’s MD Karan Adani to discuss expansion opportunities in logistics and connectivity sectors.

Pharmaceuticals

Strong Q4 Expected: Indian pharmaceutical companies are projected to report robust sales growth in Q4 FY25, boosting profitability, according to NDTV Profit’s preview.

Energy and Commodities

Crude Oil Prices Drop: Benchmark Brent crude fell nearly 15% over the past five trading days, with a barrel now costing just over $63, impacting India’s energy sector.
Macro Fundamentals Strong: Despite global commodity market pressures, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain robust, supported by declining crude oil prices, per a Motilal Oswal report.

Trade and Exports

Transshipment Facility Withdrawn: India terminated a transshipment facility for Bangladesh’s export cargo to third countries via Indian ports, following pressure from Indian apparel exporters.
India-U.S. Trade Talks: India is actively engaging with the U.S., aiming to sign the first phase of a bilateral trade pact by October 2025, despite global tariff concerns.

Market and Investment

Domestic Sectors to Lead Rebound: Top Indian funds are betting on domestic sectors to drive market recovery amid global jitters, according to Reuters.
M&G Investments Bullish on India: M&G Investments’ Vikas Pershad remains constructive on India, increasing exposure post-recent market sell-offs.
Stock Market Crash Context: Recent market volatility is compared to historical crashes like the Harshad Mehta scam and Covid-19, with recovery timelines under scrutiny.

General Economic Outlook

World Bank GDP Forecast: The World Bank revised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.3% for FY25-26, citing global economic uncertainty as a potential risk. Private sector growth hit an eight-month high in April, driven by consumer demand and foreign orders.
Rupee Weakening Strategy: The Reserve Bank of India is prepared to let the rupee weaken in alignment with the Chinese yuan, responding to global trade dynamics post-U.S. elections.
Inflation to Ease: Consumer inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in FY26 from 4.7% in FY25, improving India’s economic outlook.

Notes

The headlines reflect developments reported within the last 24 hours (April 23–24, 2025) from credible sources like Business Standard, Reuters, NDTV Profit, and others.
Some sectors (e.g., technology, retail) had limited specific headlines in the provided timeframe, so they are not included.
Global events, such as U.S. tariffs and commodity price shifts, are noted where they directly impact Indian sectors.
For further details, users can check primary sources like https://www.business-standard.com, https://www.ndtvprofit.com, or https://www.financialexpress.com.

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THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK

So, what is the outlook today for the Financial markets across the world right from Auckland (in New Zealand) till Alaska (in The UNITED STATES OF AMERICA), which will shape the investment and trade patterns for today ...

Below is a detailed financial markets outlook for Thursday, April 24, 2025, covering the specified regions. This outlook is based on available data, economic forecasts, and market trends up to the current date, with critical analysis of global economic conditions. Given the complexity and breadth of the request, the response is structured by region, focusing on key economic indicators, equity markets, fixed income, currencies, and risks. Where specific data for April 24, 2025, is unavailable, I extrapolate from recent trends and projections while noting uncertainties. All forecasts are subject to change due to unforeseen geopolitical, economic, or policy shifts.

South Pacific (Australia, New Zealand)

Economic Context:

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to begin gradual rate cuts in 2025, supporting modest economic growth at around 1.5–2%. Inflation is projected to ease toward 2.5–3%, with the RBA’s terminal rate settling at approximately 3.35% by year-end. Fiscal stimulus may emerge due to elections in May 2025, potentially boosting domestic demand. However, exposure to China’s economic slowdown and potential U.S. tariffs pose risks.
New Zealand: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to cut rates more aggressively than the RBA, with monetary easing improving growth prospects to around 1.8–2.2%. Inflation is expected to stabilize near 2%. Risks include trade exposure to China and global demand uncertainties.

Equity Markets:

Australia: Australian equities are trading at a narrower discount to global peers, supported by resilient commodity sectors (e.g., copper, lithium) tied to the energy transition. The ASX 200 is expected to see modest gains of 5–7% in 2025, with opportunities in mining and financials. Volatility may arise from tariff risks and China’s economic trajectory.
New Zealand: The NZX 50 is poised for moderate growth (4–6%), driven by domestic recovery and export-oriented firms. Small-cap equities may outperform due to improving sentiment.

Fixed Income:

Australian government bonds offer a healthy spread over U.S. bonds, with 10-year yields around 4.2–4.5%. New Zealand bonds are attractive as short-term rates decline faster, with yields at 4–4.3%. Both markets favor short-term bonds due to a steepening yield curve.

Currencies:

The Australian dollar (AUD) faces volatility from tariff risks and China exposure, trading around 0.65–0.68 USD. The New Zealand dollar (NZD) may weaken slightly to 0.58–0.60 USD due to aggressive rate cuts but could stabilize with global commodity demand.

Risks:

U.S. trade policies (e.g., tariffs on China) could disrupt commodity exports.
Geopolitical tensions and global demand slowdowns may pressure growth.
Domestic political shifts (e.g., Australian elections) could introduce policy uncertainty.

Asia

Economic Context:

The Asia-Pacific region remains a global growth driver, with 2025 GDP growth projected at 4.4%, slightly up from 4.3% in April forecasts. The region is expected to contribute 60% to global growth, led by India and Southeast Asia. Inflation is retreating, allowing monetary easing in most countries, though China’s structural slowdown (growth below 5%) and demographic challenges weigh on the outlook. Risks include U.S.–China trade tensions and geopolitical volatility.
China: Stimulus measures in H2 2024 aim to stabilize the residential sector, but deleveraging and weak consumer demand limit growth to 4.5–4.8%.
India: Robust momentum continues, with GDP growth at 6.5–7%, driven by domestic demand and capital inflows into tech and manufacturing.
Japan: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is cautiously raising rates, with growth at 1–1.2% and inflation near 2%.
South Korea and Taiwan: Strong export demand for semiconductors and electronics supports growth of 2.5–3%.

Equity Markets:

China: The CSI 300 is volatile due to property sector challenges but may see selective opportunities in non-property high-yield debt and tech. Expected returns are modest (3–5%).
India: The Nifty 50 is a regional outperformer, with 8–10% upside driven by tech, financials, and global capability centers. Valuations are high, warranting caution.
Japan: Japanese equities (Nikkei 225) are attractive due to corporate reforms and AI-driven productivity, with 6–8% gains expected.
South Korea/Taiwan: KOSPI and TAIEX indices may rise 7–9%, fueled by global demand for high-tech exports.
Southeast Asia: Markets like Singapore and Indonesia offer 5–7% returns, supported by trade diversification and infrastructure investment.

Fixed Income:

Asia high-yield (AHY) debt is attractive, with over 70% from non-Chinese issuers offering high spreads and low defaults. Yields are around 6–8%. Frontier Market Debt (FMD) also provides solid fundamentals with yields of 7–9%. Government bonds in India and Singapore are stable, with yields at 6.5–7% and 3–3.5%, respectively.

Currencies:

The Chinese yuan (CNY) faces depreciation pressure from tariffs, trading at 7.2–7.4 USD. The Indian rupee (INR) is stable at 83–85 USD, supported by capital inflows. The Japanese yen (JPY) may strengthen to 140–145 USD as BoJ tightens. Southeast Asian currencies (e.g., SGD, IDR) are resilient but sensitive to U.S. dollar strength.

Risks:

U.S. tariffs (up to 45% on China) could disrupt supply chains and growth.
Geopolitical tensions (e.g., South China Sea) and financial volatility may unsettle markets.
China’s property sector recovery remains uncertain, impacting regional sentiment.

EurAsia (Central Asia, Caucasus)

Economic Context:

Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia (e.g., Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) is projected at 3.5–4%, driven by commodity exports (oil, gas, metals). Inflation is easing but remains above 5% in some areas. Challenges include shifting trade patterns due to geoeconomic fragmentation and frequent shocks from conflicts and climate change.

Equity Markets:

Equity markets are underdeveloped but offer niche opportunities in energy and mining. Kazakhstan’s KASE index may see 4–6% gains, tied to oil prices. Liquidity and transparency remain concerns for investors.

Fixed Income:

Sovereign bonds in USD (e.g., Kazakhstan) yield 5–6%, attractive for frontier market investors. Local currency bonds carry higher currency risk but offer yields of 8–10%.

Currencies:

Currencies like the Kazakh tenge (KZT) and Uzbek som (UZS) are volatile, tied to commodity prices and Russian trade. Expect 5–10% depreciation against the USD if oil prices soften.

Risks:

Geopolitical risks (e.g., Russia–Ukraine conflict spillovers) and trade disruptions.
Limited fiscal space and reserve buffers increase vulnerability to shocks.

Middle East

Economic Context:

Growth is projected at 3–3.5%, supported by oil production (e.g., Saudi Arabia, UAE) and diversification efforts. Inflation is moderate at 3–4%. Geopolitical risks (e.g., Israel–Iran tensions) and climate change pose challenges. Non-oil sectors like tourism and tech are growing in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Equity Markets:

Saudi Arabia’s TASI index may rise 6–8%, driven by Vision 2030 projects and energy demand. UAE markets (e.g., DFM, ADX) are attractive for real estate and financials, with 5–7% upside. Volatility is high due to geopolitical risks.

Fixed Income:

Sovereign bonds (e.g., Saudi, UAE) offer yields of 4–5%, with strong credit profiles. High-yield corporate debt in real estate and infrastructure yields 6–7%.

Currencies:

Gulf currencies (e.g., SAR, AED) are pegged to the USD, ensuring stability. Non-pegged currencies like the Turkish lira (TRY) face depreciation risks, trading at 35–40 USD.

Risks:

Geopolitical conflicts could trigger oil price spikes or market turmoil.
Global demand slowdowns may pressure oil-dependent economies.

Africa

Economic Context:

Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected at 3.8–4.2%, driven by infrastructure and technology investments. Inflation is easing but remains high at 5–6%. Reforms to restore macroeconomic stability are underway, but debt sustainability is a concern. Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya lead investment opportunities.

Equity Markets:

South Africa’s JSE All Share may see 5–7% gains, supported by commodities and financials. Nigeria’s NGX and Kenya’s NSE offer 6–8% upside in tech and consumer sectors. Liquidity and governance risks persist.

Fixed Income:

Frontier Market Debt (e.g., Nigeria, Kenya) offers yields of 7–9%, with low defaults expected in 2025. South African bonds yield 9–10%, attractive for high-yield investors.

Currencies:

The South African rand (ZAR) is volatile, trading at 18–20 USD, sensitive to commodity prices. Nigerian naira (NGN) and Kenyan shilling (KES) face depreciation risks due to debt pressures.

Risks:

Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions (e.g., Red Sea conflicts).
Debt sustainability challenges in highly indebted economies.

Europe

Economic Context:

Eurozone growth is sluggish at 0.5–1%, with Germany facing manufacturing overcapacity. Inflation is near 2%, allowing ECB rate cuts to 2–2.5% by year-end. The UK is slightly stronger at 1.2–1.5% growth. Risks include energy price volatility and U.S. trade policies.

Equity Markets:

The STOXX 600 is expected to gain 4–6%, with opportunities in defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) and AI-driven tech. German DAX and UK FTSE 100 may underperform due to cyclical exposure, with 3–5% upside.

Fixed Income:

Eurozone government bonds (e.g., German Bunds) yield 2–2.5%, with a gradual approach to rate cuts. UK Gilts yield 4–4.3%. Credit markets are tight, limiting high-yield upside.

Currencies:

The euro (EUR) is stable at 1.05–1.08 USD, supported by ECB policy. The British pound (GBP) trades at 1.25–1.28 USD but faces tariff-related risks.

Risks:

U.S. tariffs and energy supply disruptions (e.g., Russian gas) could weaken growth.
Banking sector vulnerabilities due to high leverage in some institutions.

Latin America

Economic Context:

Growth is projected at 2–2.5%, constrained by softer global demand and China’s slowdown. Inflation is easing to 4–5%. Brazil and Chile benefit from metal exports (copper, lithium), while Mexico faces risks from U.S. tariffs. Elections in 2025 may introduce policy uncertainty.

Equity Markets:

Brazil’s Bovespa may rise 6–8%, driven by commodities and financials. Mexico’s IPC faces headwinds from trade risks, with 3–5% upside. Chile’s IPSA offers 5–7% gains tied to energy transition metals.

Fixed Income:

Brazilian bonds yield 10–11%, attractive for high-yield investors. Mexican bonds offer 8–9% but carry tariff-related risks. Corporate debt in commodities is appealing.

Currencies:

The Brazilian real (BRL) is stable at 5.5–5.8 USD, supported by commodity demand. The Mexican peso (MXN) may weaken to 20–22 USD due to tariff threats.

Risks:

U.S. tariffs (35% on Mexico) could disrupt trade and growth.
Political uncertainty from 2025 elections.
China’s reduced commodity demand impacts exporters.

Caribbean

Economic Context:

Growth is projected at 2.5–3%, driven by tourism and remittances. Inflation is moderate at 3–4%. Small economies are vulnerable to global demand slowdowns and climate risks. The Bahamas and Barbados lead investment opportunities.

Equity Markets:

Equity markets are limited, with low liquidity. Niche opportunities exist in tourism and financials, with expected returns of 3–5%.

Fixed Income:

Sovereign bonds (e.g., Barbados) yield 6–7%, appealing for frontier investors. Local currency bonds carry higher risk due to currency volatility.

Currencies:

Currencies like the Bahamian dollar (BSD) are pegged to the USD, ensuring stability. Non-pegged currencies (e.g., Jamaican dollar, JMD) may depreciate 5–10%.

Risks:

Climate change and hurricanes pose significant economic risks.
Dependence on tourism increases vulnerability to global slowdowns.

North America (Mexico, US, Canada)

Economic Context:

United States: The U.S. economy is resilient, with 2025 growth at 2.5–3%. Inflation is near 2.5%, allowing the Fed to cut rates to 3.5–4% by year-end. Tax cuts and deregulation boost domestic sectors, but tariffs (10–20% on imports) raise inflation risks.
Canada: Growth is softer at 1.5–2%, with inflation at 2–2.5%. The Bank of Canada is easing rates to 3–3.5%. Commodity exports support growth, but U.S. trade policies pose risks.
Mexico: Growth is projected at 1.5–2%, constrained by U.S. tariffs (35% proposed). Inflation is 4–5%, with the Bank of Mexico cautious on rate cuts.

Equity Markets:

US: The S&P 500 is supported by AI-driven earnings and cyclical sectors, with 6–8% upside. Small caps (Russell 2000) may outperform (8–10%) due to attractive valuations and post-election dynamics. Volatility is expected from trade policies.
Canada: The TSX may gain 5–7%, driven by energy and financials. Commodity exposure supports performance, but tariff risks loom.
Mexico: The IPC faces challenges, with 3–5% upside constrained by trade uncertainties. Consumer and industrial sectors offer selective opportunities.

Fixed Income:

U.S. Treasuries (10-year) yield 4.3–4.6%, with a steepening yield curve favoring short-term bonds. Canadian bonds yield 3.8–4.2%, and Mexican bonds offer 8–9% but carry tariff risks. Credit markets are tight, with limited high-yield upside.

Currencies:

The U.S. dollar (USD) faces upward pressure from tariffs and economic strength, with the DXY index at 105–108. The Canadian dollar (CAD) trades at 1.38–1.42 USD, sensitive to oil prices. The Mexican peso (MXN) may weaken to 20–22 USD.

Risks:

U.S. trade policies could disrupt North American supply chains.
Geopolitical risks and financial market volatility from policy uncertainty.
High debt levels in the U.S. and Canada raise long-term concerns.

Global Themes and Cross-Regional Risks

U.S. Trade Policies: Proposed tariffs (10–20% globally, 35% on Mexico, 45% on China) could disrupt global trade, raise inflation, and weaken emerging market currencies. Asia, Mexico, and Canada are most exposed.
Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts (e.g., Middle East, Russia–Ukraine) and rising geopolitical risks could trigger market volatility, particularly in emerging markets with limited fiscal buffers.
Monetary Easing: Most central banks are cutting rates, supporting equities and bonds but risking re-emerging inflation if cuts are too aggressive.
AI and Technology: AI-driven productivity boosts equities in the U.S., Japan, and India, but valuations are stretched, posing correction risks.
Climate and Debt: Climate change (Africa, Caribbean) and high debt levels (emerging markets, U.S.) increase vulnerability to shocks.

Critical Observations

The establishment narrative (e.g., IMF, World Bank) often emphasizes resilience and gradual recovery, but downside risks like tariffs, geopolitical shocks, and debt sustainability are underplayed. Emerging markets, while vibrant, face structural challenges that could amplify volatility.
Regional disparities are stark: Asia and the U.S. lead growth, while Europe and Latin America lag. Investors should prioritize diversification across regions and asset classes.
Short-term tactical opportunities (e.g., U.S. small caps, Asia high-yield) contrast with long-term risks (e.g., demographic drag in Asia, debt in North America).

Sources and Notes

This outlook draws on IMF Regional Economic Outlooks, J.P. Morgan, Mercer, and Russell Investments reports, among others, critically assessed for biases.
Specific data for April 24, 2025, is extrapolated from 2025 forecasts, as daily market conditions cannot be precisely predicted.
Investors should monitor real-time developments (e.g., U.S. tariff announcements, Middle East conflicts) and adjust portfolios accordingly.

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THE INDIA OUTLOOK
So, what is the outlook today for the Financial markets in India, which will shape the investment and trade patterns for today on the floors of Indian Bourses - National Stock Exchange (NSE NIFTY) and BSE (BSE SENSEX) ...
Detailed Financial Markets Outlook for India: Thursday, April 24, 2025
The Indian financial markets on April 24, 2025, are shaped by a mix of domestic resilience, global uncertainties, and structural growth drivers. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the outlook, covering equity markets, macroeconomic indicators, sectoral trends, investor sentiment, and key risks, based on recent trends and projections.
1. Macroeconomic Context

India’s economy remains a bright spot among emerging markets, though growth has moderated from its post-pandemic highs. Key macroeconomic factors influencing the financial markets include:
GDP Growth: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and other analysts project fiscal year 2024-25 (ending March 31, 2025) GDP growth at 6.4–6.7%, down from 8.2% in the previous year. Deloitte forecasts 6.7–7.3% for FY25-26, driven by rising consumption, capital expenditure, and recovering private investment. This slowdown reflects global headwinds and reduced public capex growth, but India’s structural growth story remains intact due to favorable demographics and stable governance.
Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has declined to around 4% in early 2025, driven by falling food prices (which constitute ~46% of the CPI basket). Morgan Stanley projects inflation at 4.3% for FY26-27, down from 4.9% in FY25. Core inflation remains stable, providing the RBI room for monetary easing.
Monetary Policy: The RBI initiated a shallow easing cycle in February 2025, cutting the repo rate by 25 basis points. Analysts expect another 25 bps cut in April 2025, potentially supporting liquidity and boosting market sentiment. The RBI’s focus on liquidity improvement has already driven gains in banking indices like BANKNIFTY.
Fiscal Policy: The Union Budget for FY25-26, announced earlier in 2025, emphasizes consumption stimulus through income tax reductions (no tax up to ₹12 lakh income) and increased capital expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline. This is expected to bolster urban and rural demand, supporting equity markets.
2. Equity Market Outlook

Indian equity markets have experienced volatility in Q1 2025, with the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 declining approximately 14% from their September 2024 peaks, marking the Nifty’s longest losing streak since 1996. However, a recovery is underway, supported by domestic institutional investor (DII) inflows and improving sentiment.
Market Performance:
On April 21, 2025, the Sensex closed at 79,408.52, up 855.3 points, reflecting a strong rebound driven by banking stocks and a pause in U.S. tariffs.
GIFT Nifty futures on April 21 hinted at a cautious open near 23,800, suggesting a soft start for April 24 amid global trade concerns.
Morgan Stanley predicts the Nifty could reach 24,970 by March 2026, driven by supportive foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows and lower bond yields.
Investor Sentiment:

DII Resilience: Domestic institutional investors have offset FII outflows, cushioning 82% of record FII selling in October 2024. This reflects India’s growing middle-class wealth and demographic dividend, channeling household savings into equities.
FII Flows: FIIs returned with strong buying in mid-April 2025 after heavy selling in Q4 2024 (net purchases of just ₹427 crore in 2024 vs. ₹1.7 trillion in 2023). A pause in U.S. tariffs has boosted FII confidence, but global uncertainties could cap upside.
Morgan Stanley’s sentiment gauge is in “strong buy” territory, comparable to historical buy signals in 2001, 2008, and 2013, indicating potential for recovery.
Valuations: The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Indian equities corrected from 24 to 21.9 in late 2024, aligning closer to the long-term average. While some sectors remain expensive, robust earnings growth (15–19% annually over 3–5 years) supports valuations.
Volatility: The market is expected to remain choppy due to global trade tensions, particularly U.S.-China tariff escalations. The Nifty Smallcap 100 and Midcap 100 indices have corrected 20% and 16%, respectively, in Q1 2025, but smallcaps are seen as attractive for long-term alpha generation due to recent consolidation.
3. Sectoral Trends and Investment Opportunities

Analysts highlight several sectors poised for growth in 2025, driven by domestic demand, government policies, and global trends. Key sectors to watch on April 24 include:
Banking & Financial Services:

Private banks are favored due to narrowing gaps between credit and deposit growth, easing margin pressures, and strong return ratios. Top picks include ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and SBI.
The RBI’s liquidity measures and expected rate cuts in Q1 2025 enhance profitability. The BANKNIFTY index has outperformed, driven by stocks like HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
Insurance is also attractive, with life insurers expected to see healthy growth.

Consumer Discretionary:

A revival in consumption, fueled by tax cuts and rising rural incomes, supports consumer discretionary stocks. Rural demand recovery is a key catalyst, with companies like Nestle India and Britannia Industries added to portfolios.
Auto stocks, particularly SUVs and two-wheelers, benefit from premiumization and export recovery. Tata Motors is a top pick.

Information Technology (IT):

Indian IT firms are expected to benefit from a recovery in U.S. tech spending under the new U.S. administration and continued rate cuts. HCLTech and Tata Consultancy Services are recommended.
However, project uncertainties warrant caution, with some analysts like Sandip Sabharwal less bullish on IT.

Capital Goods & Industrials:

India’s multi-year capex cycle, with private-sector investment at a decadal high of ₹55,122 billion, supports capital goods. Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Polycab are top picks.
The “China Plus One” strategy boosts electronics manufacturing services (EMS) and electrical equipment.

Power & Infrastructure:

Government focus on “Make in India” and power sector capex revival makes power stocks attractive. NTPC is a portfolio addition.
Infrastructure construction companies benefit from supportive monetary policy and increased government spending.

Smallcaps:

Smallcap stocks offer significant alpha potential after consolidation in 2024. Mirae Asset’s Varun Goel highlights attractive valuations and India’s structural growth drivers like reforms and industrial expansion.
Motilal Oswal recommends stocks like Zomato, Mankind, and Lemon Tree for 2025.
Underweight Sectors: Analysts are cautious on utilities, healthcare, metals, and energy due to weaker earnings or global commodity price pressures.
4. Bond and Fixed Income Markets

Bond Yields: The 10-year government bond yield stabilized at ~4.3% in April 2025, close to the monthly average, after volatility from U.S. tariff announcements. Yields are expected to remain elevated due to global inflationary pressures but may ease with RBI rate cuts.
Government Borrowing: Reduced borrowing costs and fiscal discipline support bond market stability. The RBI is monitoring global uncertainties to adjust policies proactively.
Investment Strategy: Conservative investors are advised to consider hybrid funds for diversification, balancing equity and fixed-income exposure.
5. Currency and Commodities

Indian Rupee: The rupee faces pressure from global trade tensions and potential U.S. tariffs but is supported by India’s robust macro stability and improving terms of trade. A new RBI paper aids policymakers in assessing equilibrium exchange rates.
Commodities:

Gold remains a hedging instrument, with prices projected at $3,000/oz in 2025.
Brent crude is expected to average $73/bbl, with balanced supply-demand dynamics limiting price upside.
Copper prices may rise long-term due to energy transition and digitalization needs.
6. Key Risks and Challenges

Global Uncertainties:

U.S. tariff policies, particularly a 125% tariff on Chinese imports and a paused 10% blanket duty, have triggered market volatility. A prolonged trade war could slow global growth and impact India, though its domestic-driven demand offers resilience.
Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Iran-Israel) and U.S. policy shifts under the Trump administration could disrupt trade and energy prices.
Corporate Earnings: Flat earnings growth in Q2 FY25 (down 1% year-on-year) raises concerns. Further deceleration could undermine investor confidence and valuations.
FII Outflows: Continued FII selling, if not offset by DIIs, could limit market upside.
Global Recession: A global downturn or near-recession could challenge India’s equity outlook, preventing indices from reaching new highs in 2025.
7. Investment Strategies for April 24, 2025

Long-Term Focus: Investors should adopt a diversified, long-term approach, focusing on sectors with strong earnings growth (banking, consumer discretionary, IT, capital goods). Smallcaps offer alpha potential but require careful selection.
Tactical Positioning: Morgan Stanley favors cyclicals (financials, industrials, consumer discretionary) over defensives, with a barbell strategy including technology. CLSA recommends affordable consumption stocks like Nestle and Britannia.
Risk Management: Maintain a market-neutral portfolio to weather volatility, diversifying into less volatile sectors like healthcare or utilities if global risks escalate.
Monitor Global Cues: Watch U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions, tariff policy updates, and global flash PMIs for signals on trade and economic activity.
8. Daily Outlook for April 24, 2025

Market Open: GIFT Nifty futures suggest a cautious open, likely near 23,800–23,900, reflecting global jitters from U.S.-China trade tensions.
Key Events:

Corporate earnings releases from major Indian firms could drive stock-specific movements.
Global flash PMIs, due this week, will provide insights into tariff impacts on economic activity, potentially influencing sentiment.
Stocks to Watch:

Banking: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank (strong Q1 momentum).
Consumer: Tata Motors, Nestle India (rural demand recovery).
IT: HCLTech, TCS (U.S. tech spending recovery).
Cap Goods: L&T, Polycab (capex cycle beneficiaries).
Technical Levels:

Nifty support: 23,577/23,213; resistance: 24,757/25,122.
Profit booking is possible after recent rallies, with elevated RSI levels signaling caution.
Conclusion

On April 24, 2025, India’s financial markets are poised for a cautious yet resilient performance, supported by strong domestic fundamentals, DII inflows, and RBI’s easing measures. While global trade tensions and corporate earnings risks warrant vigilance, sectors like banking, consumer discretionary, IT, and capital goods offer opportunities for growth. Investors should focus on diversified, long-term strategies, leveraging India’s structural advantages—demographic dividend, rising consumption, and capex revival—while navigating short-term volatility.
For the latest updates, monitor corporate earnings, global PMI data, and U.S. tariff developments, as these could significantly impact market sentiment on April 24.

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Thursday, April 24, 2025

THE #DLG+2 DISPATCH | BUSINESS BUZZ | 24.04.2025 | THURSDAY

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